Southern Districtvs
Kitchee
SCHEDULEDHong-Kong · Premier League · 9/12/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kitchee · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction details
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: -| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.75 | 13.5% | 33.0% | 19.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.74 | 19.2% | 23.8% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 1.35 | 67.4% | 43.2% | -24.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 - · Draw - · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Kitchee
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Kitchee has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Southern DistrictWWDWW
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
KitcheeWDWWD
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Southern DistrictKitchee
83.3Attack77.8
50.0Defence66.7
100.0Form77.8
83.3Power74.7
1.94xG1.76