Southendvs
Yeovil Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/5/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southend · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southend 3-2 Yeovil Town
Original prediction
Southend
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 59.0% | 42.3% | -16.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 23.3% | 25.2% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 5.14 | 17.8% | 32.5% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Southend
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Southend has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00