Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southend · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southend 3-1 Tamworth
Original prediction
Southend
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.52 | 59.9% | 59.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.4% | 20.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 4.87 | 18.7% | 20.2% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.4–17%
Predicted outcome
Southend
Probability
59.5%
Model confidence
59.5%
Southend has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SouthendDWDLW
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
TamworthLDLWL
GF 9 · GA 14 · avg 1.80/2.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
SouthendTamworth
66.7Attack61.9
52.4Defence9.5
66.7Form23.8
63.8Power34.9
3.13xG1.41