Southendvs
Kidderminster Harriers
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southend · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southend 1-3 Kidderminster Harriers
Original prediction
Southend
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 63.6% | 56.5% | -7.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.24 | 21.6% | 23.5% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 6.17 | 14.8% | 20.0% | 5.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Southend
Probability
56.5%
Model confidence
56.5%
Southend has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80