Southendvs
Berkhamsted
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southend · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southend 1-2 Berkhamsted
Original prediction
Southend
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.28 | 70.8% | 40.3% | -30.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.21 | 17.4% | 24.3% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 7.65 | 11.8% | 35.4% | 23.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-30.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Southend
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
Southend has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SouthendWWDLW
GF 14 · GA 8 · avg 2.80/1.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
BerkhamstedWWLWL
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SouthendBerkhamsted
50.0Attack100.0
50.0Defence66.7
50.0Form100.0
50.0Power90.0
1.44xG2.08