Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southend · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southend 2-4 Barrow
Original prediction
Southend
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 55.0% | 58.6% | 3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.89 | 23.6% | 22.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.28 | 21.4% | 19.5% | -1.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–19%
Predicted outcome
Southend
Probability
58.6%
Model confidence
58.6%
Southend has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SouthendWWDWD
GF 15 · GA 7 · avg 3.00/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
BarrowWLDWD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SouthendBarrow
85.2Attack40.7
55.6Defence55.6
74.1Form33.3
71.2Power44.7
2.46xG0.94