Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Southend · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southend 3-1 AFC Fylde
Original prediction
Southend
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 50.6% | 46.7% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.01 | 22.9% | 23.1% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 26.5% | 30.2% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Southend
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Southend has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SouthendDLWWD
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
AFC FyldeLWLWW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SouthendAFC Fylde
78.8Attack63.6
48.5Defence54.5
63.6Form60.6
63.5Power60.9
2.33xG1.79