Southampton U21vs
AFC Bournemouth U21
COMPLETEDEngland · Premier League 2 Division One · 9/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
AFC Bournemouth U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-3 (7%), 2-2 (7%), 1-3 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Southampton U21 3-1 AFC Bournemouth U21
Original prediction
AFC Bournemouth U21
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 58.7% | 37.3% | -21.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.36 | 20.7% | 22.5% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 4.39 | 20.6% | 40.2% | 19.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–37%
- 2.2–27%
- 3.1–36%
Predicted outcome
AFC Bournemouth U21
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
AFC Bournemouth U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60