South Sudanvs
Egypt
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/29/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Egypt · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
South Sudan 0-5 Egypt
Original prediction
Egypt
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 14.28 | 6.4% | 32.3% | 25.8 pts |
| Draw | 5.82 | 15.8% | 25.7% | 9.9 pts |
| Away | 1.18 | 77.8% | 42.1% | -35.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-35.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Egypt
Probability
42.1%
Model confidence
42.1%
Egypt has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40