South Shieldsvs
Buxton
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/26/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Buxton · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
South Shields 4-0 Buxton
Original prediction
Buxton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 45.0% | 35.9% | -9.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 24.7% | 26.9% | 2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.00 | 30.3% | 37.3% | 7.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Buxton
Probability
37.3%
Model confidence
37.3%
Buxton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20