South Melbournevs
Sydney United
COMPLETEDAustralia · Australian Championship · 10/23/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
South Melbourne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
South Melbourne 1-1 Sydney United
Original prediction
South Melbourne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.7% | 45.7% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.5% | 26.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 4.18 | 21.8% | 27.5% | 5.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.72 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
South Melbourne
Probability
45.7%
Model confidence
45.7%
South Melbourne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 13 · GA 3 · avg 2.60/0.60