South Melbournevs
Melbourne Victory
COMPLETEDAustralia · Australia Cup · 10/10/2026, 8:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Melbourne Victory · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
South Melbourne 1-1 Melbourne Victory
Original prediction
Melbourne Victory
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.20 | 21.8% | 35.5% | 13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 25.1% | 24.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.73 | 53.0% | 40.1% | -12.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.65 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Melbourne Victory
Probability
40.1%
Model confidence
40.1%
Melbourne Victory has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40