South Koreavs
Uruguay
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/28/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
South Korea · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
South Korea 1-4 Uruguay
Original prediction
South Korea
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 38.1% | 46.6% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.8% | 27.3% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 32.1% | 26.1% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–011%
Predicted outcome
South Korea
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
South Korea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80