South Koreavs
Ecuador
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/24/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
South Korea · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
South Korea 3-0 Ecuador
Original prediction
South Korea
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 42.4% | 44.4% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.5% | 27.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 29.0% | 28.0% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
South Korea
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
South Korea has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60