South Africavs
Guinea
COMPLETEDWorld · Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification · 9/26/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
South Africa · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
South Africa 2-1 Guinea
Original prediction
South Africa
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.82 | 50.2% | 36.5% | -13.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29.5% | 28.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.48 | 20.4% | 34.9% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
South Africa
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
South Africa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00