Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ABC · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Sousa are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while ABC are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (WWLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and ABC hold a 28.7-point power-rating edge (40.0 v 68.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 25.0% in the Serie D, while ABC holds the strongest overall chance at 56% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 21% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
ABC
Probability
56.1%
Model confidence
25.0%
ABC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20