Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sotra · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sotra 5-2 Notodden
Original prediction
Sotra
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 57.6% | 51.6% | -6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 22.9% | 24.7% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 4.67 | 19.5% | 23.7% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Sotra
Probability
51.6%
Model confidence
51.6%
Sotra has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SotraLWLWL
GF 12 · GA 12 · avg 2.40/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
NotoddenLLLLW
GF 10 · GA 14 · avg 2.00/2.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SotraNotodden
73.9Attack50.0
60.9Defence59.7
59.4Form48.6
63.3Power52.9
2.00xG1.06