Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Crotone · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Sorrento are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DDLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Crotone are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Crotone hold a 5.2-point power-rating edge (46.8 v 52.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 15.2% in the Serie C - Girone C, while Crotone holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 40% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Crotone
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
15.2%
Crotone has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60