Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sorrento · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sorrento 0-0 Casertana
Original prediction
Sorrento
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 09:34 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.70 | 33.6% | 43.4% | 9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.09 | 29.3% | 26.6% | -2.8 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 37.1% | 30.0% | -7.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.09 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Sorrento
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Sorrento has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SorrentoLWLLW
GF 8 · GA 9 · avg 1.60/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CasertanaWLLDW
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SorrentoCasertana
51.9Attack50.0
63.0Defence58.3
66.7Form58.3
62.7Power58.0
1.42xG1.00