Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sorrento 2-0 Casarano
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.5% | 35.3% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.5% | 30.0% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.68 | 33.9% | 34.7% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.0%
Model confidence
35.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SorrentoLLWWW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CasaranoLDWWL
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SorrentoCasarano
34.2Attack49.1
58.8Defence50.0
42.1Form49.1
46.8Power50.6
1.08xG1.12