Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sonthofen are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LWLWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Erlbach are 5W-0D-0L in their last 5 (WWWWW), averaging 1.80 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold an 8.9-point power-rating edge (49.7 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.2% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
35.2%
Model confidence
35.2%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40