Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erlbach · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sonthofen are 0W-1D-3L in their last 4 (LLLD), averaging 0.50 scored and 1.75 conceded, while Erlbach are 1W-1D-1L in their last 3 (WDL), averaging 0.33 scored and 0.33 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 7 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Erlbach hold an 8.9-point power-rating edge (49.7 v 58.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 35.2% in the Oberliga - Bayern Süd, while Erlbach holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 55% BTTS chance and 50% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Erlbach
Probability
35.2%
Model confidence
35.2%
Erlbach has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.50/1.75
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 0.33/0.33