GGOALVIO

Australia · Tasmania Northern Championship · 4/5/2025, 3:15:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Somerset · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-3

Highconfidence

Somerset are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLWWD), averaging 2.60 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Launceston U21 are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWDL), averaging 3.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Launceston U21 hold a 4.6-point power-rating edge (39.4 v 44.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.3% in the Tasmania Northern Championship, while Somerset holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 91% BTTS chance and 94% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Somerset

Probability

43.3%

Model confidence

43.3%

Somerset has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

SomersetWLWWD

GF 13 · GA 12 · avg 2.60/2.40

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Launceston U21WWWDL

GF 17 · GA 10 · avg 3.40/2.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
SomersetLaunceston U21
74.1Attack55.6
9.3Defence33.3
42.6Form44.4
39.4Power44.0
3.41xG3.03
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