Somersetvs
Burnie Utd.
COMPLETEDAustralia · Tasmania Northern Championship · 6/28/2025, 4:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Somerset · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 4-4
Somerset are 0W-0D-5L in their last 5 (LLLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 6.00 conceded, while Burnie Utd. are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LDWLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Somerset hold a 6.4-point power-rating edge (39.4 v 32.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 4-4 the most likely exact scoreline at 39.7% in the Tasmania Northern Championship, while Somerset holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 97% BTTS chance and 99% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Somerset
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Somerset has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 30 · avg 0.80/6.00
GF 6 · GA 16 · avg 1.20/3.20