Somasporvs
Aliağa FAŞ
COMPLETEDTurkey · 2. Lig · 10/18/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aliağa FAŞ · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Somaspor 1-2 Aliağa FAŞ
Original prediction
Aliağa FAŞ
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.50 | 13.9% | 25.4% | 11.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.63 | 19.5% | 22.1% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 1.36 | 66.6% | 52.5% | -14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Aliağa FAŞ
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
Aliağa FAŞ has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60