Solihull Moorsvs
Carlisle
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 10/24/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Carlisle · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 0-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Solihull Moors 1-2 Carlisle
Original prediction
Carlisle
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.89 | 18.8% | 14.2% | -4.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.34 | 21.1% | 15.7% | -5.5 pts |
| Away | 1.52 | 60.1% | 70.2% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–37%
Predicted outcome
Carlisle
Probability
70.2%
Model confidence
70.2%
Carlisle has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40