Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Shabab · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sohar 0-5 Al-Shabab
Original prediction
Al-Shabab
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.71 | 24.3% | 30.5% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.1% | 28.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 1.90 | 47.6% | 41.0% | -6.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.90 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Al-Shabab
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Al-Shabab has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SoharLLLDW
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Al-ShababLWWWL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SoharAl-Shabab
16.7Attack77.8
66.7Defence44.4
41.7Form66.7
44.5Power64.7
1.06xG1.25