Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sogndal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 3-2 (7%), 2-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sogndal 1-1 Strommen
Original prediction
Sogndal
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 48.4% | 44.4% | -3.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.98 | 23.2% | 23.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.24 | 28.5% | 32.0% | 3.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.98 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.3–27%
- 3.2–16%
Predicted outcome
Sogndal
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Sogndal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SogndalLLDWL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
StrommenLWWWL
GF 11 · GA 15 · avg 2.20/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SogndalStrommen
57.1Attack50.8
20.6Defence25.4
34.9Form38.1
39.2Power40.0
2.78xG2.25