Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sogndal · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (8%), 2-1 (8%), 4-1 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sogndal 2-1 Raufoss
Original prediction
Sogndal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 63.6% | 66.5% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.59 | 20.0% | 16.2% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 5.60 | 16.4% | 17.3% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–18%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.4–16%
Predicted outcome
Sogndal
Probability
66.5%
Model confidence
66.5%
Sogndal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SogndalDLLLD
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
RaufossLDLLL
GF 4 · GA 15 · avg 0.80/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SogndalRaufoss
53.8Attack37.2
24.4Defence11.5
30.8Form25.6
38.1Power27.6
3.08xG1.53