Sogndalvs
Kongsvinger
COMPLETEDNorway · 1. Division · 10/25/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kongsvinger · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (8%), 1-4 (8%), 2-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sogndal 3-1 Kongsvinger
Original prediction
Kongsvinger
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.58 | 20.1% | 18.6% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.73 | 19.5% | 17.5% | -2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.52 | 60.4% | 64.0% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–38%
- 2.1–48%
- 3.2–37%
Predicted outcome
Kongsvinger
Probability
64.0%
Model confidence
64.0%
Kongsvinger has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
GF 18 · GA 8 · avg 3.60/1.60