Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Olmaliq · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sogdiana 1-2 Olmaliq
Original prediction
Olmaliq
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.68 | 33.8% | 37.6% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.4% | 22.6% | -3.8 pts |
| Away | 2.28 | 39.8% | 39.8% | -0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.28 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Olmaliq
Probability
39.8%
Model confidence
39.8%
Olmaliq has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SogdianaDWWLW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
OlmaliqWLWDL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SogdianaOlmaliq
58.7Attack46.0
34.9Defence55.6
44.4Form50.8
47.0Power53.2
1.65xG1.67