Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nasaf · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sogdiana are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLWLL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Nasaf are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Nasaf hold an 11.7-point power-rating edge (44.9 v 56.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.4% in the Super League, while Nasaf holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Nasaf
Probability
44.4%
Model confidence
44.4%
Nasaf has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 9 · avg 0.60/1.80
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60