Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sogdiana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sogdiana 5-2 Mash'al
Original prediction
Sogdiana
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.31 | 69.6% | 67.2% | -2.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.77 | 19.1% | 18.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 8.06 | 11.3% | 13.8% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.31 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–011%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Sogdiana
Probability
67.2%
Model confidence
67.2%
Sogdiana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SogdianaLWWWW
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Mash'alLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 10 · avg 0.20/2.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
SogdianaMash'al
56.1Attack14.0
31.6Defence40.4
42.1Form7.0
44.7Power24.7
2.30xG0.87