Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lokomotiv · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sogdiana 2-3 Lokomotiv
Original prediction
Lokomotiv
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 18:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.25 | 40.3% | 33.1% | -7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.5% | 23.7% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.3% | 43.2% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Lokomotiv
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Lokomotiv has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SogdianaLDWWL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
LokomotivLWWDW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SogdianaLokomotiv
57.6Attack54.5
34.8Defence57.6
42.4Form53.0
46.0Power56.2
1.52xG2.00