Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sogdiana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sogdiana 1-2 Andijan
Original prediction
Sogdiana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 September 2026 at 09:50 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.32 | 38.8% | 44.5% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.29 | 27.4% | 26.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 2.66 | 33.8% | 29.4% | -4.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Sogdiana
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Sogdiana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SogdianaDLLDW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
AndijanLLLDW
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
SogdianaAndijan
66.7Attack66.7
100.0Defence33.3
100.0Form33.3
88.7Power45.3
2.16xG1.33