Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sochaux · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sochaux 1-0 Nantes
Original prediction
Sochaux
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.35 | 27.8% | 41.6% | 13.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 27.9% | 27.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.10 | 44.3% | 31.0% | -13.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Sochaux
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Sochaux has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SochauxDDWDL
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
NantesWDLLL
GF 7 · GA 11 · avg 1.40/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SochauxNantes
13.3Attack46.7
73.3Defence26.7
40.0Form26.7
45.0Power36.3
1.40xG0.89