Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
São Luiz are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLWL), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Maranhão are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (DDLWW), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Maranhão hold a 29.3-point power-rating edge (23.7 v 53.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.3% in the Copa Do Brasil, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 36% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 42% BTTS chance and 33% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 5 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/0.40