São João Vervs
Varzim
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga 3 · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Varzim · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
São João Ver 2-1 Varzim
Original prediction
Varzim
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 15:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.71 | 33.4% | 30.7% | -2.7 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.3% | 30.9% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.50 | 36.3% | 38.4% | 2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–114%
Predicted outcome
Varzim
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Varzim has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
São João VerDDDLL
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
VarzimLLLWW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
São João VerVarzim
20.0Attack53.3
60.0Defence66.7
20.0Form60.0
36.4Power61.0
0.80xG1.23