São Bernardovs
Vila Nova
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 10/24/2026, 7:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Vila Nova · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: São Bernardo 0-0 Vila Nova, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
São Bernardo 3-2 Vila Nova
Original prediction
Vila Nova
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.96 | 31.3% | 33.3% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 30.5% | 29.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.42 | 38.2% | 37.0% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.2 pts
Projected Score
São Bernardo 0–0 Vila Nova
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Vila Nova
Probability
37.0%
Model confidence
37.0%
Vila Nova has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
São BernardoLDLWD
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Vila NovaDWDWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
São BernardoVila Nova
45.1Attack47.1
63.7Defence67.6
45.1Form60.8
52.8Power59.5
0.92xG0.96