Serie BSerie B
Sunday, 12 July 2026Last updated 10:00
São Bernardo

São Bernardo

Home
DD
22
Full time
Cuiaba

Cuiaba

Away
LDW
Estadio Primeiro de Maio
GoalVio prediction
Too close to call
No clear favourite

The model sees this as an open match — all three outcomes are within a tight range.

Cuiaba36%
Draw35%
São Bernardo30%
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
São Bernardo
30%
Draw
35%
Cuiaba
36%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
São Bernardo
54
Cuiaba
34
Defence
São Bernardo
46
Cuiaba
53
Momentum
São Bernardo
33
Cuiaba
44
Danger (xG)
São Bernardo
0.73
Cuiaba
0.82
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (São Bernardo)
0.73
avg per match
xG for (Cuiaba)
0.82
avg per match
xG against (São Bernardo)
0.21
avg per match
xG against (Cuiaba)
0.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
São BernardoSão Bernardo
DDLLL
CuiabaCuiaba
LDWDL

Probability breakdown

36% confidence
São Bernardo30%
Draw35%
Cuiaba36%

Cuiaba leads with 36% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

São Bernardo head into this in Serie B fixture at Estadio Primeiro de Maio in mixed form (DD), while Cuiaba arrive in mixed form (LDW). São Bernardo have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 33% for Cuiaba over 3 games.

The model rates São Bernardo's attack at 54/100 against a 53/100 Cuiaba defence, and Cuiaba's attack at 34/100 against a 46/100 São Bernardo backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

São Bernardo have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 4 home games. They average 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per home match. Cuiaba have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 3 away matches. They average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per away game.

São Bernardo have generated 0.73 xG per game recently while conceding 0.21 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Cuiaba have generated 0.82 xG per game recently while conceding 0.70 xG per match.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 4.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Cuiaba to win with 36% confidence. Win probabilities: São Bernardo 2950%, Draw 3500%, Cuiaba 3550%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

São Bernardo 0Draws 10 Cuiaba
Avg goals: 4.0BTTS in 1/1
12 Jul 2026
São Bernardo
D22
Cuiaba
xG 0.70.3

Recent form

São Bernardo

São Bernardo

D
vs Avai
17 Jul 2026
11
xG 0.7
D
vs Cuiaba
12 Jul 2026
22
xG 0.7
L
@ Criciuma
27 Jun 2026
01
L
vs Juventude
21 Jun 2026
01
L
vs America Mineiro
16 May 2026
01
Cuiaba

Cuiaba

L
@ Juventude
17 Jul 2026
02
xG 1.1
D
@ São Bernardo
12 Jul 2026
22
xG 0.3
W
vs America Mineiro
3 Jul 2026
10
xG 1.1
D
vs Londrina
26 Jun 2026
22
L
@ Avai
21 Jun 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win São Bernardo vs Cuiaba?

GoalVio's model predicts Cuiaba to win with 36% confidence.

What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Cuiaba?

A predicted scoreline has not yet been generated for this fixture.

Will both teams score in São Bernardo vs Cuiaba?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in São Bernardo vs Cuiaba?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more