São Bernardovs
Criciuma
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie B · 10/18/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: São Bernardo 0-0 Criciuma, with an exact score probability of 23%.
Prediction record
Final result
São Bernardo 0-1 Criciuma
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:33 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.09 | 30.0% | 36.1% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 30.4% | 32.1% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 39.6% | 31.8% | -7.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Projected Score
São Bernardo 0–0 Criciuma
Exact score probability: 23%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.1%
Model confidence
36.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
São BernardoDLWDW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
CriciumaWLWWL
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
São BernardoCriciuma
46.5Attack34.3
63.6Defence71.7
46.5Form56.6
53.6Power56.2
0.83xG0.69