Serie BSerie B
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 10:01
São Bernardo

São Bernardo

Home
DD
34
Full time
Ceara

Ceara

Away
DDL
Estadio Primeiro de Maio
GoalVio prediction
45% confidence
São Bernardo(45%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
São Bernardo
45%
Draw
31%
Ceara
25%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
São Bernardo
54
Ceara
14
Defence
São Bernardo
46
Ceara
66
Momentum
São Bernardo
33
Ceara
22
Danger (xG)
São Bernardo
0.73
Ceara
0.22
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (São Bernardo)
0.73
avg per match
xG for (Ceara)
0.22
avg per match
xG against (São Bernardo)
0.21
avg per match
xG against (Ceara)
1.03
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
São BernardoSão Bernardo
DDLLL
CearaCeara
DDLLL

Probability breakdown

45% confidence
São Bernardo45%
Draw31%
Ceara25%

São Bernardo leads with 45% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

São Bernardo head into this in Serie B fixture at Estadio Primeiro de Maio in mixed form (DD), while Ceara arrive in mixed form (DDL). São Bernardo have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 0% for Ceara over 3 games.

The model rates São Bernardo's attack at 54/100 against a 66/100 Ceara defence, and Ceara's attack at 14/100 against a 46/100 São Bernardo backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

São Bernardo have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 4 home games. They average 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per home match. Ceara have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 3 away matches. They average 0.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per away game.

São Bernardo have generated 0.73 xG per game recently while conceding 0.21 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Ceara have generated 0.67 xG per game recently while conceding 1.30 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches.

There is no head-to-head data between São Bernardo and Ceara in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects São Bernardo to win with 45% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: São Bernardo 4463%, Draw 3063%, Ceara 2474%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Recent form

São Bernardo

São Bernardo

D
vs Avai
17 Jul 2026
11
xG 0.7
D
vs Cuiaba
12 Jul 2026
22
xG 0.7
L
@ Criciuma
27 Jun 2026
01
L
vs Juventude
21 Jun 2026
01
L
vs America Mineiro
16 May 2026
01
Ceara

Ceara

D
@ America Mineiro
17 Jul 2026
11
xG 0.7
D
vs Athletic Club
14 Jul 2026
00
L
@ Goias
5 Jul 2026
02
L
@ Juventude
28 Jun 2026
02
L
vs Botafogo SP
20 Jun 2026
01

Frequently asked questions

Who will win São Bernardo vs Ceara?

GoalVio's model predicts São Bernardo to win with 45% confidence.

What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Ceara?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in São Bernardo vs Ceara?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in São Bernardo vs Ceara?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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