Serie BSerie B
Friday, 17 July 2026Last updated 10:02
São Bernardo

São Bernardo

Home
DD
11
Full time
Avai

Avai

Away
DWL
Estadio Primeiro de Maio
GoalVio prediction
40% confidence
Draw(30%)
Prediction correct— Result: Draw
Win probability
São Bernardo
40%
Draw
30%
Avai
30%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
São Bernardo
54
Avai
47
Defence
São Bernardo
46
Avai
53
Momentum
São Bernardo
33
Avai
44
Danger (xG)
São Bernardo
0.73
Avai
1.05
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (São Bernardo)
0.73
avg per match
xG for (Avai)
1.05
avg per match
xG against (São Bernardo)
0.21
avg per match
xG against (Avai)
1.48
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
São BernardoSão Bernardo
DDLLL
AvaiAvai
DWLLW

Probability breakdown

40% confidence
São Bernardo40%
Draw30%
Avai30%

São Bernardo leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

São Bernardo head into this in Serie B fixture at Estadio Primeiro de Maio in mixed form (DD), while Avai arrive in mixed form (DWL). São Bernardo have a 0% win rate across their last 2 matches, compared to 33% for Avai over 3 games.

The model rates São Bernardo's attack at 54/100 against a 53/100 Avai defence, and Avai's attack at 47/100 against a 46/100 São Bernardo backline — a balanced matchup with neither side holding a clear structural edge.

São Bernardo have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 4 home games. They average 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per home match. Avai have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 3 away matches. They average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per away game.

São Bernardo have generated 0.73 xG per game recently while conceding 0.21 xG per match, overperforming their xG in 100% of recent matches. Avai have generated 1.13 xG per game recently while conceding 0.86 xG per match.

The last 1 meetings between these sides have been evenly split, with 1 draw, averaging 2.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects a draw with 40% confidence. Win probabilities: São Bernardo 4038%, Draw 2980%, Avai 2982%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Head to head

São Bernardo 0Draws 10 Avai
Avg goals: 2.0BTTS in 1/1
17 Jul 2026
São Bernardo
D11
Avai
xG 0.70.2

Recent form

São Bernardo

São Bernardo

D
vs Avai
17 Jul 2026
11
xG 0.7
D
vs Cuiaba
12 Jul 2026
22
xG 0.7
L
@ Criciuma
27 Jun 2026
01
L
vs Juventude
21 Jun 2026
01
L
vs America Mineiro
16 May 2026
01
Avai

Avai

D
@ São Bernardo
17 Jul 2026
11
xG 0.2
W
vs Nautico Recife
12 Jul 2026
20
xG 2.1
L
@ Botafogo SP
6 Jul 2026
13
L
@ Athletic Club
28 Jun 2026
01
W
vs Cuiaba
21 Jun 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win São Bernardo vs Avai?

GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 40% confidence.

What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Avai?

A predicted scoreline has not yet been generated for this fixture.

Will both teams score in São Bernardo vs Avai?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in São Bernardo vs Avai?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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