Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lida · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Smorgon are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Lida are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (LLWWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Lida hold a 19.4-point power-rating edge (39.4 v 58.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.3% in the 1. Division, while Lida holds the strongest overall chance at 53% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Lida
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
11.3%
Lida has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40