CoppaCoppa
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 10:11
Smorgon

Smorgon

Home
L
34
Full time
FC Minsk

FC Minsk

Away
W
Yunost Stadium
GoalVio prediction
55% confidence
Smorgon(55%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction missed— Result: FC Minsk
Win probability
Smorgon
55%
Draw
24%
FC Minsk
21%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Smorgon
94
FC Minsk
99
Defence
Smorgon
1
FC Minsk
6
Momentum
Smorgon
0
FC Minsk
100
Danger (xG)
Smorgon
2.70
FC Minsk
3.60
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Smorgon)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (FC Minsk)
3.60
avg per match
xG against (Smorgon)
3.60
avg per match
xG against (FC Minsk)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
SmorgonSmorgon
LDLL
FC MinskFC Minsk
WWLDD

Probability breakdown

55% confidence
Smorgon55%
Draw24%
FC Minsk21%

Smorgon leads with 55% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Smorgon head into this in Coppa fixture at Yunost Stadium in mixed form (L), while FC Minsk arrive in mixed form (W). Smorgon have a 0% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 100% for FC Minsk over 1 games.

Both teams carry genuine attacking threat — Smorgon (94/100) and FC Minsk (99/100) are both rated highly going forward. The model anticipates an open, goal-heavy contest.

Smorgon have struggled at home recently, failing to win any of their last 3 home games. They average 1.3 goals scored and 2.7 conceded per home match. FC Minsk have won 2 of their last 3 away fixtures, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per away game.

FC Minsk have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 7.0 goals per game, both teams scored in 1 of those fixtures.

The GoalVio engine projects Smorgon to win with 55% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Smorgon 5474%, Draw 2397%, FC Minsk 2129%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Smorgon 0Draws 01 FC Minsk
Avg goals: 7.0BTTS in 1/1
18 Jul 2026
Smorgon
L34
FC Minsk

Recent form

Smorgon

Smorgon

L
vs FC Minsk
18 Jul 2026
34
D
@ Orsha
11 Jul 2026
11
L
vs Volna
5 Jul 2026
13
L
vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
16 May 2026
01
FC Minsk

FC Minsk

W
@ Smorgon
18 Jul 2026
43
W
@ FC Dnepr Mogilev
10 Jul 2026
21
L
vs Dinamo Minsk
2 Jul 2026
03
D
@ Dinamo Brest
27 Jun 2026
00
D
vs ML Vitebsk
21 Jun 2026
22

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Smorgon vs FC Minsk?

GoalVio's model predicts Smorgon to win with 55% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Smorgon vs FC Minsk?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Smorgon vs FC Minsk?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Smorgon vs FC Minsk?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more