Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Smorgon · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Smorgon are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Belshina are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWDLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Smorgon hold a 3.5-point power-rating edge (34.6 v 31.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.5% in the Premier League, while Smorgon holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 53% BTTS chance and 48% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Smorgon
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Smorgon has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60