Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sleipner · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Smedby 1-5 Sleipner
Original prediction
Sleipner
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 09:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.19 | 28.4% | 35.0% | 6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.65 | 24.8% | 21.2% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 46.8% | 43.8% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.94 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Sleipner
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Sleipner has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SmedbyLDLLL
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SleipnerWDDLW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
SmedbySleipner
58.7Attack68.0
50.7Defence52.0
48.0Form64.0
52.6Power61.4
1.80xG1.94