Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Nyköping · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Smedby 1-1 Nyköping
Original prediction
Nyköping
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.54 | 25.7% | 30.5% | 4.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.78 | 24.0% | 26.9% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 50.3% | 42.6% | -7.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.78 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Nyköping
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Nyköping has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SmedbyLLLDW
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NyköpingWLWWL
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
SmedbyNyköping
58.0Attack55.1
53.6Defence68.1
50.7Form60.9
54.2Power61.2
1.19xG1.47