Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Forward · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Smedby 3-1 Forward
Original prediction
Forward
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 44.5% | 38.2% | -6.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.5% | 22.5% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.02 | 30.0% | 39.3% | 9.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Forward
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Forward has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SmedbyDWDWL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ForwardLWDWW
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SmedbyForward
64.8Attack66.7
55.6Defence63.0
57.4Form66.7
59.0Power65.5
1.55xG1.70