Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Smail · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Smail 0-0 Fanja
Original prediction
Smail
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.49 | 35.9% | 38.7% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.86 | 31.4% | 29.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.74 | 32.7% | 31.8% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.86 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Smail
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Smail has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SmailLWLDW
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FanjaLL
GF 0 · GA 3 · avg 0.00/1.50
BTTS 0/2O2.5 0/2
SmailFanja
16.7Attack0.0
33.3Defence50.0
50.0Form0.0
37.5Power21.5
1.28xG1.02